Each year, in accordance with City Charter Section 311(c), my office submits a Revenue Forecast Report, which includes information gathered from City departments, recent regional economic reports and meetings with local economists. This report covers updated revenue estimates for the remainder of the current fiscal year, ending June 30, 2024, and projections for fiscal year 2025. Forecasts inherently involve uncertainty, however, our estimates of revenue for this year have proven to be more accurate than the ones on which the adopted budget was ultimately based. Next year’s projections reflect our best estimates and seeks to promote responsible budgeting in the fiscal year ahead. Also included in the report are the estimated requirements for debt service and General Fund cash flow borrowing.
Click here to read the full FY 2025 Revenue Forecast Report
Explore below actual receipts for fiscal year 2023, projected revenues and their sources for fiscal years 2024 and 2025, and compare last year’s revenues to the estimates for this and next fiscal year.
Our last year’s report predicted “trouble ahead.” Unfortunately, that proved to be true.In our March 2023 estimate, we projected revenues of $7.560 billion for the General Fund (GF). The City’s adopted budget assumed GF revenues of $7.767 billion (not including transfers from the Reserve Fund). In the CAO’s recent January financial report regarding fiscal concerns, they have estimated that the City’s General Fund revenues are now $158 million below plan. Combined with some departments exceeding their budget, the City has been forced to adopt an abrupt hiring freeze on filling all jobs except those deemed “critical.” With double-digit vacancy rates across nearly every City department, a hiring freeze will have a negative impact on virtually all City services.
Effective April 1, 2023, a new transfer tax, United to House LA (Measure ULA) was imposed on residential and commercial real-property sales and transfers within the City of Los Angeles where the consideration or value is greater than $5 million. The new tax, which is in addition to the current transfer tax, imposes a 4.00% tax on real property sales or transfers at over $5 million but less than $10 million, and a 5.5% tax on real property sales and transfers valued at $10 million or more. The City generated $15.6 million ULA revenue in fiscal year 2022-23 and $156.9 million (as of January 2024) in fiscal year 2023-24. Revenue generated by the new tax is intended to be used to fund affordable housing and tenant assistance programs, including development, construction, acquisition, rehabilitation, and operation of housing.
The future of ULA still remains unclear due to pending litigations and a November 2024 statewide ballot measure that threatens to invalidate the Measure. Due to these uncertain outcomes and short history, it is difficult for this Office to accurately forecast ULA revenue for fiscal year 2024-25. Based on collection trend so far, our year-end estimate for 2023-24 is $270.3 million, $334.3 million or 55.3 percent below the $604.6 million in 2023-24 Adopted Budget. Our projection for 2024-25 is $271.1 million, 0.3 percent above 2023-24 estimate. My Office is urging the City to continue to responsibly allocate ULA receipts, and to have a contingency plan in place to refund any collections already expended in case the measure is invalidated.
The future remains uncertain, and it is difficult to predict the direction of the economy. The national economy has so far experienced no recession over the past year, with inflation falling and a continuing strong labor market. Interest rate hikes cooled the residential and commercial real estate markets. Our local economy was dampened by a fall in overseas tourism and major strikes affecting the City’s signature industry. Looking ahead, we see some recovery but only an anemic 1.73% increase in General Fund revenues over Fiscal 2023-24 projected actuals. Our estimate of $7.738 billion in General Fund revenue next year falls well short of the sharp rise in City expenses due to negotiated labor agreements and other cost increases.
The largest revenue increase is projected to come from a 4.1% increase in Property Taxes ($83M growth). Vehicle License Replacement fee is expected to grow by 5.4%, adding $34 million. Business License and Parking Users’ taxes are also expected to outperform the overall average increase. On the other hand, the Power Transfer, franchise payments and interest income are all expected to be lower in the coming year for a net increase of just $132 million in GF revenue.
Explore historical total City revenue by source or category:
Although we expect a slight growth for fiscal year 2025 based on current trends, should the national economy fall into a recession within the next fiscal year, the City may realize less General Fund revenue than we estimate, as most economically sensitive revenues would be impacted.
General Fund expenses are on track to increase considerably next fiscal year. The State is experiencing its own severe budget challenges. The Mayor’s ambitious effort to meet the homelessness emergency will continue. Meanwhile, the hiring freeze will mean continued stress on both front-line and support services from Animal Services to Public Works. The City still lacks a credible and comprehensive Capital Improvement Plan to address its staggering backlog of deferred maintenance and the need to modernize our aging infrastructure.
All of this means that short-term fixes and budget gimmickry will only prolong pain and lead to “an inexorable decline in public services, undermining our quality of life and the economic prospects of our residents” as our Office warned in January when releasing the City’s Annual Comprehensive Financial Report.
All of this means that short-term fixes and budget gimmickry will only prolong pain and lead to “an inexorable decline in public services, undermining our quality of life and the economic prospects of our residents” as our Office warned in January when releasing the City’s Annual Comprehensive Financial Report.
I summarized last year’s March Revenue Forecast with this advice: “The voters of Los Angeles expressed their choices for change in the last election. It will be our shared responsibility not to be trapped by business as usual if we are to deliver on their expectations. Taking the long view and the high road will be essential to making a more equitable, livable and resilient city for our four million residents.”
Our residents deserve to have their City’s fiscal house put in order so that not only their City government lives within its means, but they can too. Our residents deserve to look forward to a brighter future for themselves and their families based on a strong economy that leaves no one behind.
Now is the time for City leadership to recognize the need to move beyond business as usual and get down to the business of meeting the changing needs of our changing city.
The estimated debt service requirement for 2024-25 on the City’s long-term debt is $549.8 million, which is $22.8 million less than 2023-24 mainly due to decrease in General Obligation Bonds (GOB) total payments ($109.5 million compared to $138.0 million in 2023-24). The $109.5 million payment is for principal and interest payments on the City’s $1.2 billion in outstanding GOB. The remaining debt service covers the Municipal Improvement Corporation of Los Angeles (MICLA), the Wastewater system, the Solid Waste Resources Programs, and Site-Specific Tax Revenue Debt.
In total, debt service is projected to be 3.68 percent of projected 2024-25 General Fund receipts, well under the 15 percent limit set by the City’s Debt Policy.
Non-Voter Approved
Voter Approved
Dashed: Limit
Dashed: Limit
Non-Voter Approved
Voter Approved